hindsight bias

noun

UK /ˈhaɪndsaɪt ˌbaɪəs/

US /ˈhaɪndsaɪt ˌbaɪəs/

Thinking you knew something would happen only after it already happened.

After the game ended, my hindsight bias made me feel sure our team would lose all along.

SYNONYMS

knew-it-all-along effect retrospective bias creeping determinism after-the-fact bias

RELATED WORDS

memory prediction overconfidence judgment reflection

OTHER MEANINGS

2. The habit of believing past events were more predictable than they really were.

Her hindsight bias made the surprise party seem obvious in retrospect.

3. A memory error where new knowledge changes how you remember your old beliefs.

Because of hindsight bias, he forgot that he had once doubted the answer.

4. A thinking trap that makes people blame themselves for not foreseeing surprises.

Hindsight bias made the coach feel foolish for missing the storm warning.